Adjusted EBITDA is also expected to drop by $205m to approximately $505m.
Key points:
- Flutter estimates a $438m adverse gross gaming revenue impact in Q4 2024
- NFL results led to a $390m reduction in revenue and $260m drop in Adjusted EBITDA
- Flutter’s international performance is expected to outperform forecasts by 1% for revenue and 2% for Adjusted EBITDA
Flutter Entertainment has revised its 2024 financial outlook after reporting unfavourable US sports betting results in November and December, primarily driven by NFL parlay and Same Game Parlay outcomes.
The updated guidance reduces expected US revenue by approximately $370m, bringing the new estimate to $5.78bn and adjusted EBITDA by $205m, now projected at $505m.
The operator attributed the decline to the highest rate of favourites winning in nearly two decades, leading to an estimated gross gaming revenue (GGR) impact of $438m.
For Q4 2024, US revenue is projected at $1.59bn, with Adjusted EBITDA forecasted at $161m.
Flutter noted that its core structural revenue margin remained stable at 14.5%, a year-on-year increase of 100 basis points, supported by FanDuel’s parlay offerings and a higher-margin sports mix.
However, unfavourable sports results reduced margins by 390 basis points, compared to 240 basis points in Q4 2023. Promotional spending was reduced by 20 basis points to mitigate adverse outcomes.
While US performance fell below expectations, Flutter reported better-than-expected results outside the US, particularly in the UK and Ireland. Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in these markets are expected to exceed previous forecasts by 1% and 2%, respectively, driven in part by favourable English Premier League outcomes.
Flutter highlighted that the impact of US sports results does not alter its long-term growth expectations, as outlined at its Investor Day in September 2024. It maintains confidence in its growth drivers and structural margins heading into 2025.
Good to know: A more detailed update, including formal guidance for 2025, will reportedly be provided in its Q4 earnings report on 4 March
The revised outlook follows recent strategic developments, including Flutter’s appointment of Kevin Harrington as CEO for its UK and Ireland division in November 2024. Harrington succeeded Ian Brown as part of an organisational restructure aimed at consolidating Flutter’s international operations outside the US
The move followed Flutter’s primary listing switch to the New York Stock Exchange, reflecting its focus on US growth, where revenue accounted for 38.5% of its Q3 total.
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